Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 33.043409 35.599756 38.375577 41.635133 45.386215 49.602989 54.752992
2025-06-08 28.685544 31.964580 35.741002 40.481281 46.376840 53.619315 63.447971
2025-06-15 27.065678 30.899245 35.509376 41.600509 49.667976 60.366077 76.381017
2025-06-22 25.338199 29.417736 34.475586 41.412963 51.051168 64.637850 86.757931
2025-06-29 23.747201 27.918010 33.209213 40.679436 51.461048 67.450760 95.478325
2025-07-06 22.253068 26.406673 31.767864 39.506380 51.014539 68.799682 102.002394
2025-07-13 21.836421 26.247647 32.079859 40.767090 54.262154 76.459081 122.308884
2025-07-20 21.313710 25.896691 32.080420 41.544965 56.829831 83.469829 144.351449
2025-07-27 20.822648 25.546678 32.039604 42.230865 59.309501 90.836343 171.111450
2025-08-03 20.143888 24.891859 31.508157 42.093034 60.347254 95.637733 194.296385
2025-08-10 19.377403 24.071781 30.680558 41.405960 60.312557 98.218459 212.810675
2025-08-17 18.650651 23.272881 29.836777 40.621025 59.997529 100.126077 230.705769
2025-08-24 17.936215 22.483791 28.999313 39.840910 59.713922 102.328476 253.086386
2025-08-31 17.196019 21.630098 28.025786 38.771402 58.774543 102.861038 270.066439
2025-09-07 17.029882 21.597829 28.293790 39.811859 62.088834 114.768497 357.916897
2025-09-14 16.591364 21.144034 27.881902 39.637597 62.915973 120.506379 426.972064
2025-09-21 16.069199 20.545021 27.211857 38.955652 62.588882 122.946250 481.401348
2025-09-28 15.489249 19.839891 26.343945 37.863851 61.263035 122.147016 509.421196
2025-10-05 15.432697 19.915072 26.716394 39.037173 65.056232 138.454192 797.502887
2025-10-12 15.282403 19.840325 26.840576 39.760255 67.960297 153.481038 1304.663685
2025-10-19 15.121434 19.741389 26.917566 40.397292 70.774725 169.942211 2574.420897
2025-10-26 14.824710 19.421343 26.611834 40.269321 71.685366 179.439927 4973.490113
2025-11-02 14.450013 18.968251 26.064871 39.631090 71.214687 182.819444 8824.391706